Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.331429 2.472914 2.627181 2.809626 3.021932 3.264417 3.567327
2025-05-11 2.174905 2.353927 2.558417 2.813945 3.132045 3.526368 4.073393
2025-05-18 2.032999 2.227168 2.455383 2.750820 3.135836 3.642418 4.406534
2025-05-25 1.945887 2.153709 2.404035 2.738439 3.193140 3.827438 4.873577
2025-06-01 1.871987 2.088724 2.354953 2.719893 3.234410 3.990893 5.352419
2025-06-08 1.807604 2.030161 2.307965 2.697114 3.263263 4.136422 5.849445
2025-06-15 1.771452 2.004015 2.299557 2.723911 3.364544 4.412847 6.725899
2025-06-22 1.695413 1.922579 2.212984 2.633455 3.276394 4.351060 6.832751
2025-06-29 1.658243 1.889488 2.188690 2.629368 3.321428 4.532349 7.638944
2025-07-06 1.604729 1.832636 2.129198 2.569566 3.270167 4.524506 7.931290
2025-07-13 1.589889 1.825843 2.137246 2.609273 3.385799 4.864396 9.625095
2025-07-20 1.587694 1.835396 2.167870 2.684676 3.571641 5.407275 13.271791
2025-07-27 1.559926 1.810544 2.150433 2.687137 3.633784 5.708728 17.198969
2025-08-03 1.534138 1.787234 2.133806 2.689253 3.695247 6.033540 24.502707
2025-08-10 1.492744 1.741018 2.082012 2.631084 3.633999 6.011008 27.903014
2025-08-17 1.467090 1.715702 2.059568 2.619398 3.662857 6.257455 47.102250
2025-08-24 1.441556 1.689678 2.034920 2.602327 3.678745 6.474798 147.540159
2025-08-31 1.416505 1.663541 2.009034 2.581507 3.684489 6.666002 NaN
2025-09-07 1.404901 1.655781 2.009964 2.605808 3.788053 7.249746 NaN
2025-09-14 1.366276 1.608892 1.950637 2.523457 3.651915 6.890609 NaN
2025-09-21 1.349530 1.592623 1.937018 2.519716 3.689001 7.225363 NaN
2025-09-28 1.320593 1.558401 1.895267 2.465112 3.608149 7.061109 NaN
2025-10-05 1.315730 1.558275 1.905175 2.501374 3.736058 7.846443 NaN